Khamenei: The Emerging Winner

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has conditionally endorsed the nuclear deal signed between the P5+1. In my personal opinion the supreme leader maybe wanted a deal not to be reached and has been a vocal critic of the nuclear deal. He has threatened that Iran will consider the deal void if any new sanctions are imposed on the country in any form, it will become a reality if the sanctions committee of UNSC decides to take action against Iran for violating UNSC resolutions by carrying out a ballistic missile test. The deal has already been diplomatically tested since it has been reached. Iran does need to check its condescending tone against the west as it has more to loose than gain if the deal is scrapped by any of the two parties. Iran’s oil exports will be hurt as well as it will have to go back to a country, which is ostracized. The deal is ever closer to come into effect once it is passed by the congress (USA) and the parliament of Iran.

Barrack Obama might claim that the nuclear deal enhances the security of the region but the question is if it really does enhance security why has the US government offered its gulf partners a huge security package, shouldn’t the security spending go-down if it helps enhance security and promote regional stability? . The American administration has stated that the nuclear deal is a peaceful solution, which will help, in regional stability but the fact is that will the American’s be open to any other gulf state carrying out nuclear tests citing thereat from Iran?

Coming back to Iran the supreme leaders contradicting stand is seen hardline to appease many who see this deal as a violation of Iran’s sovereignty. The US and EU have also been silent on as to what they will do if Iran uses its freedom to carry out mass transaction of money to terror groups or rebels or carry out weapons transfer. US has promised that if Iran does violate the norms it will re-impose sanctions but at what cost? . The sanctions against DPRK or Iran haven’t worked because they have still obtained nuclear weapons, so a better policy will be to obviously engage both the nations. With Iran’s involvement in Yemen and Saudi Arabia looking to USA for support against Iran in its proxy war against Iran poses a certain threat to the relationship between Saudi Arabia and America. Whatever happens Iranian nuclear deal is here to stay.